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It’s Derby Day on Saturday and at around 4.30pm, the runners will be hurtling their way round Tattenham corner in one of the showpieces of the sporting calendar, let alone the horseracing one.

Thousands will flock to Epsom Downs to witness the world’s most famous race

and the majority will be backing hot favourite Authorized. The Peter Chapple-Hyam-trained colt has done nothing wrong and is more than likely to be sent off odds-on now that housewives’ favourite Frankie Dettori has been booked for the ride. Yet I cannot possibly advise backing him at those ridiculously short odds and I’m happy to stick with our ante-post pick Archipenko.

Don’t get me wrong, if you offered me 5/1 about the favourite, I’d bite your arm off for it. He was incredibly impressive at York last time out and won the Dante, which has proved one of the best Epsom trials in recent years, without breaking sweat. His trainer reckons he’s the best he has ever trained and he has handled his share of superstars in his time. When you also consider that in the last 41 years, the favourite or second favourite has obliged on no less than 27 occasions, it seems crazy to oppose him. However, he certainly isn’t value at odds-on and if the ground continues to dry out, he certainly won’t have it all his own way.

I’m pretty pleased with our ante-post trade on the Aidan O’Brien-trained Archipenko at 14/1. The Derrinstown winner may well be sent off second favourite at half the odds we backed him, allowing us to lay back our stakes and have decent free trade. The only real concern is whether he’s got the class to beat Authorized but as long as he makes the frame, we’ll make a tidy profit. As for the rest, they look like a pretty ordinary bunch and I wouldn’t swop our fellow for any of them. The David Elsworth-trained Salford Mill hasn’t been working well recently and may well be over-hyped. Aqaleem is still extremely inexperienced, while Soldier of Fortune, Regime and Admiralofthefleet are easily over-looked.

The fillies get their chance to strut their stuff 24 hours earlier in the Oaks, where we’ve also got another hotpot in the shape of the Henry Cecil-trained Passage of Time. All racing fans will be desperate to see Cecil record his eighth Oaks success and get back to where he belongs, winning major races. She came through her trial in the Musidora at York in workmanlike fashion and jockey Richard Hughes certainly had to earn his fee as she took a bit of time to shrug off Sweet Lily. The filly was carrying a 3Ib penalty and more importantly a nasty throat abscess, which will need operating on. The major worry would be that this could affect her performance at any stage and I could not advise backing her at 6/4.

However, Henry Cecil fans need not worry as I still reckon he may end up training the winner of the race with his second string Light Shift. She really impressed me when she won at Chester last time and looks to have that little touch of class. She came from off the pace that day and still managed to have the pace to pull back the leaders and win a shade cosily. She is from the family of Group 1 winner Shiva and rates a cracking each-way bet at 8/1 in what doesn’t look the strongest renewal. Dalvina looks sure to run well but is already as short as 4/1 and the John Oxx trained Four Sins really impressed at Naas last time. The latter is not yet guaranteed to take her part but cannot be ruled out as her trainer knows the time of day.

The same card also features the Coronation Cup and at this early stage the most likely winner would be last year’s Derby hero Sir Percy. It’s impossible to recommend a trade as his opposition could easily include Sixties Icon, who will fancy his chances of finishing a lot closer to Sir Percy than when they last met at Epsom. It may just be a spectacle to watch…

This week's trades:

Non-Football Portfolio:

Horse Racing –

The Oaks

2pts e/w Light Shift 8/1 (General)

Trading strategy – look to lay back stake after qualification

The Derby

1pt e/w Archipenko at 14/1 (William Hill)

Trading strategy – look to lay back stake before race at single figure price

Results:

19/05//07 +4pts Under 2.5 goals in FA Cup Final

19/05//07 +5pts Draw at Half Time in FA Cup Final

19/05//07 +14pts No Goalscorer in FA Cup Final

Performance – 39 winning bets from 69 recommended bets (since Sports Trader began on 9th November 2006)

Profit – +223pts to advised stakes since start

by: Bill Esdaile